The NSW Central Coast has the Nation’s forth worst mortgage delinquency rate

Posted on 23 October 2010

Moody’s Investors Service has introduced a new approach to identify areas with poorly performing mortgages in Australia The first results of its application have just been released and the report shows that currently two outer Sydney regions and the NSW Central Coast are the worst performers.
“This new approach — which divides Australia into 65 regions and projects their performances onto ‘heat maps’ — is a departure from the more traditional approach,” says Arthur Karabatsos, Head of Structured Finance Research for Moody’s in Asia Pacific.
“In the usual approach, mortgages are analysed according to postcodes, but this has several well-known deficiencies, mainly the large and unmanageable number of these postcodes — some 6,500 — and which means the data is often incomprehensible to observers outside the immediate relevant geographies,” says Karabatsos.
“By contrast, the new Moody’s approach overcomes all these deficiencies and incorporates three improved delinquency measures — delinquencies within a region; a region’s contribution to total delinquencies, and the Moody’s Mortgage Performance Indicator (MMPI),” says Karabatsos. The MMPI takes into account both the number of delinquent borrowers in a region and each region’s contribution to total delinquencies. The MMPI for the NSW Central Coast is 1.75, which indicates that deliquency on the Central Coast is approaching double the national delinquency average.
Karabatsos was speaking on Moody’s publication of the details of the new approach and the results of its application in March 2010 to 750,000 mortgages belonging to Moody’s-rated RMBS.
“The heat maps revealed that the performances of mortgages deteriorate generally as they radiate away from city centres and, in particular, as of March, most of the poorest performing regions were around Sydney” says Karabatsos.
Almost without exception, borrowers who have missed at least one repayment (30 plus days delinquent) have a higher LTV and loan balance than all other borrowers within the same region. And borrowers who have missed at least three repayments have an even higher LTV and loan balance than those who have missed one repayment.
The report is entitled “Moody’s Regional Approach to Mortgage Delinquencies in Australia.” It is available at www.moodys.com

Terry Hunt
Personal Mortgage Adviser
SMARTLINE PERSONAL MORTGAGE ADVISERS
T 02 4384 5900 | M 0415 240 280 | E thunt@smartline.com.au
www.smartline.com.au/thunt

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    First home buyers in Brisbane and Melbourne now face mortgage pressures on a par with Sydney, according to research from the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) at the University of Canberra has
    found see http://www.canberra.edu.au/centres/natsem/attachments/pdf_folder/R10_1-_bp-FHB-Mortgage-Pressure2.pdf
    and http://www.canberra.edu.au/centres/natsem/attachments/pdf_folder/NATSEM-Press-Release-Oct-2010-FHB-Housing-Pressure-Final.pdf

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